???? 據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2月19日消息稱，雷斯塔能源本周在一份分析報告稱，全球新冠疫情對需求的沖擊和能源轉(zhuǎn)型戰(zhàn)略將使大型石油公司的原油和天然氣產(chǎn)量在2028年或?qū)⒏邕_到峰值，其產(chǎn)量將低于此前預(yù)期。

?????？松梨凇⒀┓瘕垺⒂?、殼牌和道達爾這五家綜合超級巨頭的原油和天然氣總產(chǎn)量將在2028年達到每天1800萬桶石油當量的峰值，而疫情之前的預(yù)測預(yù)計，它們的總產(chǎn)量將持續(xù)上升，至2030年將超過2000萬桶/天。

????雷斯塔能源的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，與2019年相比，去年大型石油公司的油氣總產(chǎn)量下降了近5%，即90萬桶/天。分析人士稱，2020年，由于油價和石油需求的崩潰，五大石油巨頭也總共遭受了創(chuàng)紀錄的760億美元的損失。

????過去一年，減排目標和戰(zhàn)略改變了超級石油巨頭的長期生產(chǎn)前景。

????雷斯塔能源目前預(yù)計，2025年這些巨頭的凈產(chǎn)量約為1750萬桶/天，2028年峰值約為1800萬桶/天。就在新冠之前，雷斯塔能源曾預(yù)計2025年的產(chǎn)量為1900萬桶/天，2028年將達到2000萬桶/天。

????一些承諾在2050年前成為凈零排放企業(yè)的歐洲大型石油公司已經(jīng)表示，它們的石油產(chǎn)量將在未來幾年逐漸下降。

????例如，英國石油公司表示，它將把在低碳能源方面的投資增加10倍，達到每年50億美元，并在2030年前將石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量減少40%。本月早些時候，殼牌表示，其石油產(chǎn)量將在2019年見頂，并將在未來30年持續(xù)下降。

????雷斯塔能源的上游分析師RahulChodhary表示：“未來10年，五大石油巨頭成功的關(guān)鍵將是加強其在更具彈性的地區(qū)的業(yè)務(wù)，重組和調(diào)整規(guī)模以適應(yīng)市場需求，并償還其高負債水平?！?/p>

????朱佳妮 摘譯自 鉆井地帶

????原文如下：

????Big Oil To See Production Peak In 2028

????The pandemic shock to demand and the energy transition strategies are set to bring peak crude and natural gas production for Big Oil in 2028, at a lower volume and earlier than previously expected, Rystad Energy said in an analysis this week.

????The five integrated supermajors – ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and Total – will see their combined crude oil and natural gas production peak at 18 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2028, compared to projections from before COVID-19 that had expected the combined production to continue rising until 2030 at over 20 million bpd.

????Last year, Big Oil’s combined oil and gas production declined by close to 5 percent, or by 900,000 boepd, compared to 2019, according to Rystad Energy. In 2020, the five supermajors also incurred a record combined $76 billion loss due to the crash in oil prices and oil demand, the analysts said.

????Over the past year, emission reduction targets and strategies have altered the long-term outlook for the supermajors’ production.

????Rystad Energy now sees the majors’ net production at around 17.5 million boepd in 2025 and peaking at around 18 million boepd in 2028. Just before the pandemic, Rystad Energy had expected 2025 production to be at 19 million boepd and 20 million boepd in 2028.

????Some of the European supermajors that have committed to becoming net-zero emission businesses by 2050 have already said that their oil production would gradually drop over the years.

????BP, for example, said it would boost its investment in low-carbon energy ten times to US$5 billion a year and reduce oil and gas production by 40 percent by 2030. Earlier this month, Shell said its oil production peaked in 2019 and is set for a continual decline over the next three decades.

????“The key to success for the five majors over the next decade will be to strengthen their business in more resilient regions, restructure and resize to match the market needs, and pay back their high debt levels,” said Rahul Choudhary, upstream analyst at Rystad Energy.