???? 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)3月24日消息稱，在充滿挑戰(zhàn)的2020年之后，石油和天然氣需求的復(fù)蘇—在疫苗接種和歐佩克+供應(yīng)削減的支持下—對(duì)鉆井活動(dòng)是有利的。雷斯塔能源預(yù)計(jì)，2021年全球鉆井?dāng)?shù)將達(dá)到54000口左右，比2020年增加12%。到2022年，鉆探量將進(jìn)一步增加，同比增加19%，達(dá)到約64500口井，但勘探活動(dòng)仍將低于2019年的73000口井。
????到2021年，陸上鉆井活動(dòng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加12%，從2020年的46000口井增加到約51700口井，到2022年將再增加19%，達(dá)到約61700口井。盡管鉆探活動(dòng)有所增加，但似乎仍需要更多時(shí)間才能恢復(fù)到大流行前的水平，因?yàn)?019年陸上油井?dāng)?shù)量接近7.1萬口。
????在海上領(lǐng)域，我們預(yù)計(jì)2021年和2022年的鉆井活動(dòng)將同比增長約10%。這將使今年鉆探的海上油井?dāng)?shù)量從2020年的不足2300口增加到近2500口，我們預(yù)計(jì)到2022年相應(yīng)的數(shù)量將超過2700口。
????實(shí)際上，這種健康的復(fù)蘇將推動(dòng)未來兩年的海上鉆井活動(dòng)超過大流行前的水平，因?yàn)?019年全球鉆探的海上油井?dāng)?shù)量略低于2500口。這意味著近海鉆探的恢復(fù)將在2021年發(fā)生，2022年將是進(jìn)一步增長的一年。
????雷斯塔能源研究分析師Daniel Holmedal表示：“與前幾年相比，北美頁巖板塊主導(dǎo)的產(chǎn)量增長，我們預(yù)計(jì)中東的陸上和海上大陸架以及南美的深水市場(chǎng)將成為未來增長的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力。為了恢復(fù)產(chǎn)量水平，運(yùn)營商將不得不啟動(dòng)新的鉆井計(jì)劃，同時(shí)對(duì)現(xiàn)有油井進(jìn)行維護(hù)和改進(jìn)，這將為油井服務(wù)供應(yīng)商在未來幾年帶來重大機(jī)遇。”
????陸上部分仍然更加敏感，特別是在北美頁巖領(lǐng)域，在那里，運(yùn)營商之間持續(xù)的資本約束將大部分活動(dòng)推至2022年及以后。以頁巖為重點(diǎn)的作業(yè)者已經(jīng)制定了相對(duì)平坦的2021年鉆井和完井預(yù)算。該地區(qū)的油井服務(wù)支出預(yù)計(jì)將從2020年的500億美元增長至2021年的540億美元，增產(chǎn)部分的增長速度將高于其他油井服務(wù)部分。
????朱佳妮 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
????原文如下：
????118,500 Oil & Gas Wells To Be Drilled Worldwide Through 2022
????After a challenging 2020, the oil and gas demand recovery – supported by vaccination efforts and OPEC+ supply cuts – is proving good for drilling activity. Rystad Energy expects around 54,000 wells to be drilled worldwide in 2021, a 12% increase from 2020 levels. In 2022 drilling is set to increase even more, by another 19% year-on-year to about 64,500 wells, though activity will still fall short of the 73,000 wells drilled in 2019.
????onshore drilling activity is expected to increase by 12% from the 46,000 wells drilled in 2020 to about 51,700 wells in 2021, before climbing by another 19% in 2022 to reach around 61,700 wells. Despite the increased activity, it still looks like drilling needs some more time to recover to pre-pandemic levels, as the onshore well count was nearly 71,000 in 2019.
????In the offshore segment, we expect drilling activity to increase year-on-year by about 10% in both 2021 and 2022. This will bring the number of offshore wells drilled to nearly 2,500 this year, from less than 2,300 in 2020, and we forecast that the corresponding number for 2022 will surpass 2,700.
????Such a healthy recovery is in fact poised to propel offshore drilling activity beyond pre-pandemic levels during the next two years, as the number of offshore wells drilled globally in 2019 was just shy of 2,500. This means the recovery of offshore drilling will already happen in 2021, with 2022 being a year of further growth.
????“In contrast to previous years, when the North American shale sector-led production growth, we expect the onshore and offshore shelf in the Middle East and the deepwater market in South America to be the main drivers of growth going forward. To recover production levels, operators will have to launch new drilling plans in tandem with maintenance and enhancement programs for existing wells, opening significant opportunities for well service suppliers in the years ahead,” says Daniel Holmedal, energy research analyst at Rystad Energy.
????The onshore segment remains more sensitive, particularly within the North American shale sector, where continued capital discipline among operators is pushing most activity out to 2022 and beyond. Shale-focused operators have already guided relatively flat drilling and completion budgets for 2021. Well services spending in the region is expected to grow from $50 billion in 2020 to $54 billion in 2021, with the stimulation segment seeing higher growth compared to other well services segments.
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