據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站4月14日消息 伯克利實(shí)驗(yàn)室的一項(xiàng)最新研究顯示，美國(guó)電力行業(yè)的排放量比15年前預(yù)計(jì)的水平減少了52%，拜登政府的目標(biāo)是到2035年使電網(wǎng)脫碳。

　　能源部勞倫斯伯克利國(guó)家實(shí)驗(yàn)室的最新研究分析了歷史趨勢(shì)和EIA對(duì)電力行業(yè)排放量的預(yù)測(cè)，以了解取得了多大進(jìn)展。

　　伯克利實(shí)驗(yàn)室科學(xué)家Ryan Wiser是這項(xiàng)研究的主要負(fù)責(zé)人，他說(shuō)：“照常預(yù)測(cè)，從2005年到2020年，二氧化碳年排放量將從24億公噸上升到30億公噸，但2020年的實(shí)際排放量降至僅14.5億噸。美國(guó)將電力行業(yè)的排放量削減了52%，低于預(yù)期水平。”

　　研究顯示，與15年前的預(yù)測(cè)相比，技術(shù)進(jìn)步和低碳政策是減排的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動(dòng)力。

　　這項(xiàng)研究稱，這種對(duì)排放趨勢(shì)的新看法表明，電力行業(yè)有可能進(jìn)一步大幅減排。

　　Ryan Wiser告訴彭博社記者：“人們經(jīng)常擔(dān)心，能源轉(zhuǎn)型需要一個(gè)世紀(jì)，或者至少幾十年。事實(shí)上，我們已經(jīng)走了一半。”

　　伯克利實(shí)驗(yàn)室的報(bào)告稱，盡管如此，挑戰(zhàn)依然存在，包括基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和建立大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)可行的能源儲(chǔ)存，以確保可靠的電力供應(yīng)，而可再生能源在發(fā)電量中所占份額將高得多。

　　在過(guò)去幾年中，很大一部分減排是由于燃煤能力的不斷退役，而天然氣是另一種化石燃料，但它燃燒起來(lái)比煤更清潔。

　　2020年，天然氣占美國(guó)公用事業(yè)規(guī)模發(fā)電的最大份額，為40.3%，化石燃料占60.3%，煤炭占電力結(jié)構(gòu)的19.3%。

　　王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　原文如下：

　　The U.S. Power Sector Has Reduced Emissions By 52%

　　The U.S. power sector has reduced emissions by 52 percent from levels projected 15 years ago, and is now “halfway to zero,” a New Berkeley Lab study showed, as the Biden Administration is targeting to decarbonize the electricity grid by 2035.

　　The new research from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) analyzed historical trends and EIA’s projections for emissions in the power sector to see how much progress has been made.

　　“Business-as-usual projections saw annual carbon dioxide emissions rising from 2,400 to 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) from 2005 to 2020,” said Berkeley Lab scientist Ryan Wiser, who is the lead author of the study. “But actual 2020 emissions fell to only 1,450 MMT. The U.S. cut power sector emissions by 52% below projected levels – we are now ‘halfway to zero.’”

　　Technology advancement and low-carbon policies were the key drivers in the reduction of the emissions compared to the forecasts made 15 years ago, according to the study.

　　The research says that this new look at the emissions trends shows that further large reductions in emissions in the power sector are possible.

　　“There’s often this concern that energy transitions take a century, or at least decades,” Wiser told Bloomberg. “The fact that we’ve marched halfway there is an impressive story,” he added.

　　Still, challenges remain, including in infrastructure and building up massive economically viable energy storage to ensure reliable power supply when renewables will have a much higher share of generation, Berkeley Lab’s report says.

　　A large part of the emissions reductions over the past years were due to the continuous coal-fired capacity retirements, at the expense of natural gas—another fossil fuel which, however, burns cleaner than coal.

　　Natural gas accounted for the largest share of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation in 2020, at 40.3 percent, with fossil fuels at 60.3 percent share, also due to coal’s 19.3-percent share of the power mix.