據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)6月30日新德里報(bào)道，日前，高盛大宗商品研究公司(Goldman Sachs Commodities Research)表示，由于供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)迫近，歐佩克及其盟國即歐佩克+需要增加石油產(chǎn)量，以在2022年前平衡市場。

　　該研究在6月29日的一份報(bào)告中表示，預(yù)計(jì)到年底，石油需求將再增加220萬桶/天，造成500萬桶/天的供應(yīng)缺口，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過潛在國家與頁巖生產(chǎn)商的產(chǎn)能。

　　高盛表示，盡管新的大規(guī)模感染浪潮可能減緩市場再平衡，但我們預(yù)計(jì)OPEC+仍將采取增產(chǎn)策略，因全球其他地區(qū)供應(yīng)面臨下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，表明原油和上游行業(yè)的前景比成品油和下游行業(yè)更為強(qiáng)勁。

　　該公司預(yù)計(jì)，歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國將連續(xù)幾個(gè)月增加50萬桶/天的供應(yīng)量，屆時(shí)該組織將于7月1日召開會(huì)議，討論德爾塔新冠病毒變體的威脅、恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)以及頁巖生產(chǎn)反應(yīng)仍然緩慢等問題。

　　冠狀病毒的 Delta 變體更具傳染性，可能比其他變體更受關(guān)注。

　　然而，歐佩克秘書長穆罕默德?巴爾金多(Mohammad Barkindo)周二表示，2021年石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增加600萬桶/天，其中500萬桶/天將在今年下半年增加，這提振了復(fù)蘇希望。

　　郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman says more OPEC+ supply needed to balance oil market

　　Goldman Sachs Commodities Research said more oil production is needed from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to balance the market by 2022 as supply risk looms elsewhere.

　　The U.S. bank forecast oil demand to rise by an additional 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) by year-end, leaving a 5 mbpd supply shortfall, well in excess of what the potential country and shale producers can bring online, it said in a note dated June 29.

　　"While a large new infection wave could slow the market rebalancing, we expect OPEC+ to remain tactical in its output hikes with downside risks to global supply elsewhere pointing to a more robust outlook for crude and the upstream sector than petroleum products and the downstream sector," Goldman said.

　　The bank sees a base case of 0.5 mbpd supply increase from OPEC+ producers for consecutive months, when the group meets on July 1 to discuss the threat of the Delta COVID variant, the potential return of Iran production and still slow shale response.

　　The Delta variant of the coronavirus is more infectious and is likely to gain more traction over other variants.

　　However, boosting broad recovery hopes, Mohammad Barkindo, Secretary-General of OPEC said on Tuesday that demand is expected to rise by 6 mbpd in 2021, with 5 mbpd of that in the second half of the year.

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