據(jù)天然氣資訊1月5日消息稱，美根據(jù)GlobalData的數(shù)據(jù)，假設(shè)天然氣價(jià)格保持在每100萬英熱單位3.5美元以上，美國Marcellus和Utica頁巖氣田的天然氣產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)到2025年將突破日產(chǎn)420億立方英尺大關(guān)。這家領(lǐng)先的數(shù)據(jù)和分析公司指出，盡管北美是最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)國，供應(yīng)約占美國天然氣總產(chǎn)量的40%，但預(yù)計(jì)2023年后不會(huì)有新的管道上線。

雖然到2030年，阿巴拉契亞盆地的產(chǎn)量有可能增加到470億立方英尺/天，但由于管道和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的限制，僅從中游因素來看，該區(qū)塊未來的產(chǎn)量就有減少的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

目前的管道基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和計(jì)劃于2023年在賓夕法尼亞州、俄亥俄州和西弗吉尼亞州修建的11條天然氣管道的總電力將只能支持410億立方英尺/天的天然氣流動(dòng)能力。

考慮到資源潛力，Marcellus和Utica可以在推動(dòng)美國天然氣供應(yīng)需求方面發(fā)揮重要作用。然而，將天然氣輸送到墨西哥灣沿岸需要額外的管道能力，大部分在建和批準(zhǔn)的工廠都將位于墨西哥灣沿岸。

隨著新的液化天然氣終端明年投入使用，美國有望成為全球最大的液化天然氣出口國，并在一定程度上填補(bǔ)歐洲和亞洲的需求缺口方面發(fā)揮重要作用。

曹海斌 摘譯自 天然氣資訊

原文如下：

Globaldata: Natural gas production growth in Appalachia

Natural gas production from the US’s Marcellus and Utica shale plays is forecast to cross the 42 billion ft3/d mark by 2025, according to GlobalData – assuming gas prices stay above US$3.5 per 1 million Btu. The leading data and analytics company notes that no new pipelines are expected to come online after 2023, despite the fact that North America is the largest gas producer and supplies approximately 40% of the total natural gas production in the US.

While the Appalachia basin has the potential to ramp up production to 47 billion ft3/d by 2030, pipeline and infrastructure limitations put the play at risk of curtailing production in the future based on the midstream factor alone.

Doh continues: “The combined power of both current pipeline infrastructure and the 11 gas pipelines planned to be built in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia by 2023 will be able to support a mere 41 billion ft3/d of natural gas flowing capacity.”

Doh adds: “With respect to LNG production, Marcellus and Utica could play an important role in driving demand for natural gas supply in the US, given their resource potential. However, it will require additional pipeline capacity to bring natural gas to the Gulf Coast, where most of the under-construction and approved plants are to be located.”

“With new LNG terminals launching next year, the US is on track to become the largest LNG exporter in the world and an important player to partially fill the demand gap in Europe and Asia.”

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