據(jù)OilNOW網(wǎng)站1月11日消息 咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲表示，石油和天然氣行業(yè)今年將繼續(xù)反彈，預(yù)計(jì)運(yùn)營(yíng)商支出將超過4000億美元，更高的價(jià)格將推動(dòng)另一年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金流。全球供應(yīng)鏈中斷、勞動(dòng)力成本和商品價(jià)格上漲將導(dǎo)致運(yùn)營(yíng)商的總體成本上升4%-10%，具體取決于行業(yè)。
伍德麥肯茲表示：“運(yùn)營(yíng)商將繼續(xù)關(guān)注資本紀(jì)律、效率和成本控制。盡管如此，我們預(yù)計(jì)運(yùn)營(yíng)商支出將同比增長(zhǎng)9%，2022年將超過4000億美元。”
盡管如此，該咨詢集團(tuán)表示，40%的全球再投資率（資本投資除以分紅前稅后經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流）將保持在歷史低點(diǎn)附近。
伍德麥肯茲表示：“在 50 多個(gè)超過 5000 萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量并準(zhǔn)備好在 2022 年批準(zhǔn)的項(xiàng)目中，有 40 多個(gè)將取得進(jìn)展。項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)健，新建內(nèi)部收益率平均超過 18%，在 10%的貼現(xiàn)率下，平均盈虧平衡點(diǎn)低于 40 美元/桶油當(dāng)量。”
今年將批準(zhǔn)的主要項(xiàng)目包括埃克森美孚在圭亞那近海的巨型Yellowtail油田開發(fā)項(xiàng)目，目標(biāo)產(chǎn)量約為25萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量/天，這是該南美國(guó)家迄今為止最大的資源基地。
90億美元的開發(fā)預(yù)計(jì)每月平均生產(chǎn)1049316-1192404立方米（660-750萬(wàn)桶）的原油。
初始生產(chǎn)預(yù)計(jì)將在2025-2026年開始，運(yùn)營(yíng)至少持續(xù)20年。該項(xiàng)目預(yù)計(jì)將在開發(fā)鉆井期間雇用540人，在安裝階段高峰期雇用約600人，在生產(chǎn)作業(yè)期間雇用100-140人。
SBM Offshore已獲得為Yellowtail浮式生產(chǎn)、儲(chǔ)存和卸載船（FPSO）執(zhí)行前端工程和設(shè)計(jì)（FEED）的合同，該船將是荷蘭公司有史以來最大的生產(chǎn)設(shè)施。
吳恒磊 編譯自 OilNOW
原文如下：
Operator spend in oil and gas sector to surpass US$400 billion this year – WoodMac
Consultancy group Wood Mackenzie says the oil and gas sector will continue to rebound this year, with operator spend expected to surpass US$400 billion and higher prices driving another year of record cash flow. Global supply chain disruption, labour costs and increasing commodity prices will drive up overall costs for operators between 4-10%, depending on the sector.
“Operators will maintain focus on capital discipline, efficiency, and cost control,” WoodMac said. “Despite this, we expect operator spend will increase by 9% year-on-year, exceeding US$400 billion in 2022.”
Nevertheless, at 40%, the consultancy group said the global reinvestment rate – capital investment divided by pre-dividend post-tax operating cash flow – will remain near record lows.
“More than 40 of the 50-plus projects over 50 million boe and ready for sanction [in 2022] will progress,” WoodMack said. “Project economics are robust — greenfield IRRs average over 18%, with average breakevens below US$40/boe at a 10% discount rate.”
Major projects to be sanctioned this year include ExxonMobil’s giant Yellowtail development offshore Guyana targeting around 250,000 barrels of oil per day, the largest resource base to date in the South American country.
The US$9 billion development is anticipated to produce an average of 1,049,316 m3 – 1,192,404 m3 (6,600,000 -7,500,000 barrels) of crude oil per month.
The initial production is expected to begin by 2025/2026, with operations continuing for at least 20 years. The project is expected to employ up to 540 persons during development well drilling, approximately 600 persons at the peak of the installation stage, and 100 to 140 persons during production operations.
SBM Offshore has been awarded contracts to perform Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) for the Yellowtail Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel (FPSO). The vessel will be the largest producing unit ever to be built by the Dutch company.
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