? 當(dāng)今時(shí)代，對(duì)石油需求峰值預(yù)測(cè)并沒有過時(shí)，因?yàn)槭托枨笕匀粡?qiáng)勁，盡管奧密克戎引發(fā)了新恐慌

? 國(guó)際能源署署長(zhǎng)比羅表示:需求動(dòng)態(tài)比許多市場(chǎng)觀察人士此前預(yù)計(jì)的要強(qiáng)勁

? 石油需求前景似乎非常樂觀，甚至連美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油鉆探公司都開始提高產(chǎn)量

據(jù)1月17日今日油價(jià)報(bào)道，2020年，隨著疫情爆發(fā)，一個(gè)又一個(gè)國(guó)家出臺(tái)限制措施，許多能源行業(yè)觀察人士甚至提出，這是石油時(shí)代的終結(jié)。這些評(píng)論人士表示，需求已經(jīng)見頂。他們說(shuō)，從現(xiàn)在開始，這將是一個(gè)惡性循環(huán)，這些預(yù)測(cè)并不久遠(yuǎn)。

疫情剛過去一年，經(jīng)濟(jì)就重新開放、增長(zhǎng)，對(duì)許多人來(lái)說(shuō)，消耗更多原油也不足為奇。去年9月，彭博社報(bào)道稱，全球一些最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體石油需求反彈至疫情前水平，甚至在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)。

如今，疫情已經(jīng)過去兩年，盡管奧密克戎變種引發(fā)了新一輪恐慌，但石油需求仍保持強(qiáng)勁。分析人士預(yù)計(jì)，油價(jià)仍將走高，原因是產(chǎn)能有限、新產(chǎn)能投資不足以及需求強(qiáng)勁。

國(guó)際能源署(iea)本周對(duì)這種需求強(qiáng)勁表示了驚訝。國(guó)際能源署似乎已經(jīng)假定，由于某種原因，石油需求增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)放緩。這一假設(shè)可能與該機(jī)構(gòu)自己的能源預(yù)測(cè)有關(guān)。該預(yù)測(cè)認(rèn)為，風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電能力將大幅增長(zhǎng)，電動(dòng)汽車的采用也將大幅增加，而后者將直接影響石油需求。然而，它的假設(shè)被證明是錯(cuò)誤的。

IEA總干事法提赫?比羅爾(Fatih Birol)本周表示，“需求動(dòng)態(tài)強(qiáng)于許多市場(chǎng)觀察人士預(yù)期，這主要是由于對(duì)奧密克戎擔(dān)憂的預(yù)期有所緩和。”換句話說(shuō)，國(guó)際能源署的這一聲明意味著，該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有更多國(guó)家采取封鎖措施，以防止病毒傳播。然而，這一次不太可能出現(xiàn)更嚴(yán)重的封鎖。即使是最富裕的經(jīng)濟(jì)體也會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)很難應(yīng)對(duì)另一次經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)閉，所以在應(yīng)對(duì)這次奧密克戎時(shí)比以往更加謹(jǐn)慎。

比羅爾表示，“我們看到包括尼日利亞和厄瓜多爾在內(nèi)的一些主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)都出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的供應(yīng)中斷，這呼應(yīng)了分析師的擔(dān)憂，即全球石油供需關(guān)系中的供應(yīng)面與需求面一樣存在問題。在修復(fù)了兩條重要管道后，厄瓜多爾已經(jīng)開始恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。尼日利亞雖然處境艱難，但決心提高石油產(chǎn)量”。

這就是石油基本面的現(xiàn)狀，不過，未來(lái)可能會(huì)有所不同。一方面，投資不足問題正變得越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重。歐佩克和IEA都警告稱，世界需要發(fā)現(xiàn)更多新石油。IEA已將自己重塑為能源轉(zhuǎn)型的擁護(hù)者。

出現(xiàn)這種情況的唯一原因可能是，需求并未像所有能源轉(zhuǎn)型倡導(dǎo)者所希望的那樣迅速消失。然而，由于過渡壓力，大型石油公司正在限制其石油產(chǎn)量，這不僅意味著勘探投資減少導(dǎo)致新發(fā)現(xiàn)石油減少，還意味著一些最大石油生產(chǎn)商產(chǎn)量減少。這將使供應(yīng)負(fù)擔(dān)更多地轉(zhuǎn)移到歐佩克+，他們的閑置產(chǎn)能正在減少，就像歐洲大型石油公司的產(chǎn)量一樣。

石油需求前景似乎非常樂觀，甚至連美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油公司都開始提高產(chǎn)量，盡管疫情導(dǎo)致他們重新安排了工作重點(diǎn)，將重點(diǎn)放在向股東返還現(xiàn)金，而放棄了產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)。隨著2021年石油出口創(chuàng)下歷史新高，如果不抓住這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)，為這個(gè)能源匱乏的世界提供更高比例的石油，那就有點(diǎn)奇怪了。

比羅爾表示，“石油和天然氣的消費(fèi)必須減少，需求也必須減少。沒有其他選擇，但我想明確表示，需求下降并不意味著明天就會(huì)變成零”。

為確保朝著2050年凈零目標(biāo)邁進(jìn)，盡管一些更激進(jìn)的環(huán)保組織呼吁徹底的轉(zhuǎn)型，但石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)不可能在一夜之間停止。即使是比羅爾認(rèn)為實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放至關(guān)重要的《巴黎協(xié)定》，要完全履行這一減排也是個(gè)難題。當(dāng)然，除非政府采取一系列禁令和命令，為公民指明正確方向。當(dāng)然，有些國(guó)家和地區(qū)已經(jīng)這么做了。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Why The Bears Completely Missed The Mark On Oil Demand

Covid era peak oil demand predictions didn’t age well as oil demand is still going strong despite the fresh scare of the Omicron variant

IEA Chief Birol: Demand dynamics are stronger than many of the market observers had thought

The oil demand outlook appears to be so bullish that even U.S. shale drillers have begun boosting their production

In 2020, as the coronavirus locked down country after country, many energy industry observers and even participants floated the argument that this was the end of the oil era. Demand, these commentators said, had peaked. From now on, it will be a downward spiral for it, they said. These predictions did not age well.

Just a year into the pandemic, economies were reopening, growing, and unsurprisingly for many, consuming more crude oil. Last September, Bloomberg reported that some of the world's biggest economies had seen a rebound in oil demand to pre-pandemic levels and even further growth on top of these levels.

Now, two years into the pandemic and with hopes it could be the last one for infection waves, oil demand is still going strong despite the fresh scare of the Omicron variant. Analysts are predicting higher oil prices still, citing limited capacity, insufficient investment in new production, and the strength of demand.

The International Energy Agency this week expressed its surprise with this demand strength. The IEA, it seems, had assumed that for some reason or another, oil demand growth would slow down. Perhaps the assumption had something to do with the agency's own energy forecasts that see massive growth in wind and solar power generation capacity and a strong increase in EV adoption, with the latter directly affecting oil demand. Yet its assumption proved to be quite wrong.

"Demand dynamics are stronger than many of the market observers had thought, mainly due to the milder Omicron expectations," the IEA's chief, Fatih Birol, said this week. Translated, this statement means that the IEA expected more national lockdowns to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus variant. Yet more severe lockdowns were quite unlikely this time around—even the wealthiest economies would find it hard to cope with another shutdown of their economies, so they are approaching this Omicron wave more carefully than previous ones.

"We see some of the key producers including Nigeria and also Ecuador that have serious supply disruptions," Birol also said, echoing concern by analysts that the supply side of the global oil equation is as problematic as the demand side. Ecuador is already restoring production after it repaired two important pipelines，and Nigeria is struggling but determined to boost its oil production.

This is the present state of oil fundamentals. The future may look different. For one thing, the underinvestment problem is becoming increasingly grave. Both OPEC and the IEA—the latter which has rebranded itself as a champion of the energy transition—have warned that the world needs more new oil discoveries.

The only reason for this could be that demand is not dying as fast as hoped by all the champions of the energy transition. Yet Big Oil is curbing its oil output because of transition pressure, and this would mean not just fewer new discoveries because of lower investment in exploration but also lower output from some of the biggest producers out there. This would swing the burden of supply more to OPEC+ whose spare capacity is shrinking, just like European Big Oil's output.

The oil demand outlook appears to be so bullish that even U.S. shale drillers have begun boosting their production despite a pandemic-induced rearrangement of priorities that saw them focus on returning cash to shareholders and forego production growth. With oil exports last year hitting record highs, failing to take advantage of the opportunity to supply a higher portion of the oil an energy-hungry world needs would have been a little odd.

"The consumption of oil and gas has to diminish, demand has to decline," the IEA's Birol said earlier this month in comments on a Canada-focused report. "There is no way out. But I wanted to make clear that a declining demand doesn't mean tomorrow they will be zero."

Indeed, despite calls from some more radical environmentalist groups to do exactly that, oil and gas production cannot be stopped overnight to ensure a clear path towards the 2050 net-zero goals. But even the decline that the IEA's Birol correctly sees as essential for the achievement of the Paris Agreement goals might prove a tough nut to crack. Unless, of course, governments resort to a series of bans and mandates to point their citizens in the right direction. Come to think of it, some are already doing just that.