據(jù)油田技術(shù)1月21日消息，近日，伍德麥肯茲公司(Wood Mackenzie)發(fā)布了其《石油市場(chǎng):2022年5大關(guān)注事項(xiàng)》報(bào)告，該報(bào)告討論了今年影響全球需求、石油供應(yīng)和煉油市場(chǎng)的不確定性和問(wèn)題。

石油需求面臨下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

新冠疫情爆發(fā)的形式和范圍以及各國(guó)政府的應(yīng)對(duì)措施給2022年的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇和石油需求增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)了下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。此外，隨著21年第四季度通脹步伐加快，消費(fèi)可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步受阻，給經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和個(gè)人流動(dòng)性帶來(lái)下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

2022年汽車電氣化政策和采用速度將對(duì)本十年及以后的全球運(yùn)輸燃料需求產(chǎn)生影響。

歐洲能源稅收指令的“Fit for 55”修正案提議，從2023年起取消在歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)(EEA)內(nèi)銷售和使用的航空和船舶船用燃料的免稅。這確實(shí)需要成員國(guó)的一致同意，因此將在 2022 年成為值得關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。

2022年石油供應(yīng)有望實(shí)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)

2022年全球供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加480萬(wàn)桶/天，略高于需求增長(zhǎng)。預(yù)計(jì)今年不會(huì)出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺。

非歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)將貢獻(xiàn)全球石油供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)的近一半，其中北美是主要貢獻(xiàn)者，包括來(lái)自加拿大、美國(guó)和墨西哥灣的增長(zhǎng)。與2021年相比，美國(guó)本土的原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將同比增長(zhǎng)。

然而，運(yùn)營(yíng)商仍專注于償還債務(wù)和向投資者返還資金。通脹壓力也可能影響經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)水平。

在其他地方，非歐佩克國(guó)家的主要增長(zhǎng)來(lái)源是俄羅斯、巴西（在2021年令人失望之后，巴西的產(chǎn)量應(yīng)該會(huì)有所增長(zhǎng)）和北海（預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)量將強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)）。

歐佩克+政策將繼續(xù)按計(jì)劃執(zhí)行

歐佩克+達(dá)成的每月增產(chǎn)40萬(wàn)桶的協(xié)議預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)到2022年9月。但歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)打算每月召開(kāi)會(huì)議檢查基本面，并在需求與預(yù)期不同時(shí)進(jìn)行必要的調(diào)整。

Wood Mackenzie副總裁Ann-Louise Hittle表示:“預(yù)計(jì)到2022年，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量將比去年增加200萬(wàn)桶/天，達(dá)到2830萬(wàn)桶/天，俄羅斯的石油產(chǎn)量也有望增加。”

“在歐佩克+月度會(huì)議上，謹(jǐn)慎的管理將主導(dǎo)整體增長(zhǎng)，即使一些較小的歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)無(wú)法顯示出任何增長(zhǎng)，甚至出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)量下降。市場(chǎng)管理上的失誤仍然是可能的，因?yàn)樵摷瘓F(tuán)傾向于使用庫(kù)存填充率等滯后指標(biāo)來(lái)做決策。”

全球需求提升煉油利用率，但仍低于疫情前水平

2021年的特點(diǎn)是輕餾分較強(qiáng)，中等餾分較弱，幾個(gè)大型煉油項(xiàng)目的投產(chǎn)比計(jì)劃的要慢，特別是中東地區(qū)的項(xiàng)目。

副總裁Alan Gelder表示:“我們正在密切關(guān)注沙特阿拉伯的吉贊、科威特的Al-Zour、以及印度的Vizag的活動(dòng)，因?yàn)檫@些活動(dòng)將對(duì)蘇伊士以東的供需平衡產(chǎn)生重大影響。”

然而，最大、最顯著的產(chǎn)能增加是尼日利亞的Dangote煉油廠，該煉油廠日產(chǎn)量為65萬(wàn)桶，目前計(jì)劃于2022年年中投產(chǎn)。盡管有這些投資，但全球需求的增長(zhǎng)速度將超過(guò)產(chǎn)能增加的160萬(wàn)桶/天，從而提高利用率和煉油利潤(rùn)率。然而，新常態(tài)的利潤(rùn)率范圍低于疫情前，因?yàn)槿蚶寐蕦⒈３衷?019年水平以下。”

下游投資組合的高評(píng)級(jí)可能會(huì)放緩;加大對(duì)綠色戰(zhàn)略的關(guān)注

盡管石油巨頭需要進(jìn)一步調(diào)整投資組合，但剝離煉油廠的計(jì)劃可能會(huì)在2022年失去動(dòng)力。由于過(guò)去一年已就剝離投資組合中最具吸引力的資產(chǎn)達(dá)成協(xié)議，亞洲主要企業(yè)和關(guān)鍵企業(yè)可能面臨著從買家和投資者那里找到足夠引起興趣的挑戰(zhàn)。公司可以推遲煉油廠的銷售，繼續(xù)致力于降低成本和提高績(jī)效，同時(shí)制定更詳細(xì)的能源轉(zhuǎn)型戰(zhàn)略。或者，更多的煉油廠轉(zhuǎn)換成碼頭和生物基地的公告也值得關(guān)注。

煉油商將面臨來(lái)自股東和政府的壓力，要求他們制定減少碳足跡的策略。碳成本對(duì)煉油廠收益的影響是一個(gè)非常現(xiàn)實(shí)的威脅，這可能導(dǎo)致2022年更多煉油廠關(guān)閉，因?yàn)槿绻麤](méi)有監(jiān)管支持，這些成本無(wú)法轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者。

Gelder表示:“最后，一個(gè)值得關(guān)注的關(guān)鍵話題是可再生柴油原料的價(jià)格。最近一波綠色燃料項(xiàng)目增加了對(duì)植物油和廢品的需求。這種價(jià)格緊縮會(huì)被認(rèn)為是短暫的嗎?是否有足夠的原料供應(yīng)來(lái)支持煉油廠計(jì)劃開(kāi)發(fā)的生物燃料的增長(zhǎng)?”

“具有全球影響力的市場(chǎng)參與者將有機(jī)會(huì)優(yōu)化供給的類型和來(lái)源，而本地參與者將面臨更嚴(yán)格的條件，放緩生物燃料供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)的步伐，以及這對(duì)煉油廠實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零投資組合的貢獻(xiàn)。”

裘寅 編譯自 油田技術(shù)

原文如下：

Wood Mackenzie: oil demand faces downside risks in 2022

Wood Mackenzie has released its Oil markets: 5 things to look for in 2022 report which discusses the uncertainties and issues impacting global demand, oil supply and refining markets this year.

Oil demand risks to the downside

The shape and scope of viral outbreaks and governments’ responses place downside risk on economic recovery and oil demand growth in 2022. Additionally, with the pace of inflation accelerating in 4Q21, consumption could be further hindered bringing downside risk to both economic growth and personal mobility.

Vehicle electrification policy and pace of adoption during 2022 will have ramifications on global transport fuel demand in this decade and beyond. 

Europe’s “Fit for 55” proposed amendments to the Energy Taxation Directive, is removing tax exemptions on aviation and marine bunker fuels sold within, and for use within, the EEA from 2023 onwards. This does require unanimous approval among member states, so will be one to watch in 2022.

Oil supply lining up for strong growth in 2022

2022 global supply is expected to grow by 4.8 million b/d, slightly outpacing demand growth. A shortage of supply is not anticipated for this year.

Non-OPEC is expected to contribute nearly half of the global oil supply growth with North America as the main contributor, with gains from Canada and the US including from the Gulf of Mexico. In contrast to 2021, US Lower 48 crude production is expected to show year-on-year growth. However, operators are still focused on paying down debt and returning funds to investors. Inflationary pressure could also crimp activity levels.

Elsewhere, the main sources of non-OPEC growth are Russia, Brazil, which should deliver after a disappointing 2021, and the North Sea, where strong gains in output are expected.

OPEC+ policy to continue as planned

The OPEC+ agreement to increase production across the group by 400 000 b/d each month, until September 2022 is expected to continue. But the OPEC+ producers intend to meet each month to examine the fundamentals and adjust as needed if demand is different than expected.

Wood Mackenzie vice president Ann-Louise Hittle said: “Total OPEC crude oil production is forecast to rise 2 million b/d to 28.3 million b/d in 2022 compared to last year, and gains in Russia’s oil production is also expected.

“Careful management in the monthly OPEC+ meetings will predominate with overall growth expected even if a few of the smaller OPEC producers are unable to show any increases or even see declines in output. A lapse in management of the market is still possible because the group tends to use lagging indicators such as rate of stock fill to make its decisions.”

Global demand lifts refining utilisation, but margins remain below pre-pandemic levels

2021 was characterised by strong light ends, weak middle distillates and the slower than planned commissioning of several major refining projects, particularly those in the Middle East.‘

Vice president Alan Gelder said: “We are closely monitoring the activities at Jazan in Saudi Arabia, Al-Zour in Kuwait and Vizag in India as these will make a material difference to East of Suez supply/demand balances.

“However, the largest and most significant capacity addition is the 650 000 b/d Dangote refinery in Nigeria, currently scheduled for commissioning mid-year 2022. Despite these investments, global demand growth is to outpace these capacity additions by 1.6 million b/d, lifting utilisation and improving refining margins. The new normal is, however, a lower range of margins than enjoyed pre-pandemic, as global utilisation is to remain below 2019 levels.”

Downstream portfolio high grading could slow down; greater focus on green strategies

Despite the need for further portfolio rationalisation by the oil majors, plans to divest refineries might lose steam in 2022. The majors and key regional players might be challenged to find enough interest from buyers and investors as divestments of the most attractive assets in their portfolio have already been agreed in the past year. Companies could delay refinery sales and focus on a continued commitment to cost reduction and performance improvement, while developing more detailed energy transition strategies. Alternatively, more announcements of refinery conversions to terminals and bio-sites are something to watch out for.

Refiners will come under pressure from shareholders and governments to devise strategies to reduce their carbon footprint. The impact of carbon costs on refinery earnings is a very real threat, which could lead to more refinery closures in 2022, as these costs cannot be passed to consumers without regulatory support.

Gelder said: “Finally, a key topic to watch is prices of feedstocks for renewable diesel. The recent wave of green fuels projects has increased demand for vegetable oil and waste products. Can this crunch in prices be considered short-lived? Is there enough feedstock supply to support the ramp up in biofuels that refiners aim to develop?

“Market players with a global presence will have the opportunity to optimise the types and origin of the feed, while local players face tighter conditions, slowing down the pace of biofuels supply growth, and its contribution to achieving net zero portfolios for refiners.”