據(jù)美國彭博新聞社2022年2月17日報道，在一波整體價格波動的影響下，石油期貨曲線正在顯示出市場有史以來最強(qiáng)勁的時期之一。

布倫特原油價格本周在90美元上方劇烈波動，但市場結(jié)構(gòu)的變化更為劇烈。  

近期合約相對于更遠(yuǎn)期合約有巨大的溢價，這表明交易商們現(xiàn)在就在吵吵嚷嚷地購買原油。 一些期貨價差已達(dá)到2007年以來的最高水平。

全球最重要的現(xiàn)貨物理油價——布倫特原油——的走勢最為明顯。2月16日，布倫特原油價格自2014年以來首次突破每桶100美元。 最近幾周，北海原油現(xiàn)貨市場蓬勃發(fā)展，隨著歐洲煉油商需求激增，部分現(xiàn)貨的價差達(dá)到歷史最高水平。

英國能源咨詢公司Energy Aspects包括Amrita Sen在內(nèi)的分析師本周在給客戶的報告中寫道：“布倫特原油價格走強(qiáng)明顯表明，煉油商正在采購短途原油。”“在中期內(nèi)，保持市場平衡的唯一途徑仍然是高油價，以減緩需求增長。”

在美國，位于俄克拉荷馬州的關(guān)鍵樞紐庫欣中心的原油庫存處于2018年以來的最低水平，從而刺激了西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的緊張。

倫敦布倫特原油期貨2月17日下跌1.6%，接近每桶93.33美元。 西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油下跌1.7%，至每桶92.11美元。

上周，國際能源署(IEA)提高了其歷史需求數(shù)據(jù)，提供了最新跡象，表明能源消費(fèi)量一直高于預(yù)期。 盡管多數(shù)預(yù)測機(jī)構(gòu)曾預(yù)計，今年年初全球石油庫存將顯著增加，但這一預(yù)期迄今未能實(shí)現(xiàn)。  

這種供應(yīng)緊張只會讓有關(guān)整體油價將很快突破每桶100美元的猜測進(jìn)一步升溫。 數(shù)月來，期權(quán)交易商一直在押注這一結(jié)果，價值數(shù)百萬桶的合約價格在100美元及以上。  

SEB AB大宗商品首席分析師Bjarne Schieldrop表示：“自圣誕節(jié)前以來，價格走勢一直是非常看漲的單向線。除非市場非常緊張，否則你不會看到這種情況。” 

地緣政治風(fēng)險  

最近幾天整體油價的波動，是由市場兩大地緣政治風(fēng)險推動的。 

瑞銀集團(tuán)大宗商品分析師喬瓦尼·斯陶諾沃說：“目前市場受媒體關(guān)注，市場對來自東歐和中東核談判相關(guān)的敏感消息做出反應(yīng)。”  

李峻 編譯自 美國彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Oil Curves Show One of the Tightest Markets Ever

Oil futures curves are indicating one of the strongest periods the market has ever seen, amid a bout of headline price volatility. 

Brent prices have swung wildly above $90 this week, but there’s been even more action in the market’s structure. 

Nearby contracts are commanding enormous premiums over those further out, indicating that traders are clamoring for barrels right now. Some futures spreads have reached their strongest levels in data going back to 2007.

Nowhere is the move clearer than in the world’s most important physical oil price -- Dated Brent -- which on Wednesday topped $100 for the first time since 2014. The market for real barrels in the North Sea has boomed in recent weeks, with differentials for some physical cargoes hitting the highest on record as demand from European refiners surges. 

“The strength in Dated Brent clearly suggests refiners are out procuring short-haul barrels,” Energy Aspects analysts including Amrita Sen wrote in a note to clients this week. “The only way to balance this market over the medium term remains high oil prices to slow demand growth.”

In the U.S., stockpiles at the key hub of Cushing, Oklahoma are at their lowest since 2018, spurring tightness in West Texas Intermediate crude.

Brent futures were down 1.6% in London near $93.33 on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate lost 1.7% to $92.11.

Last week, the International Energy Agency boosted its historical demand numbers, offering the latest indication that consumption has been running ahead of expectations. While most forecasting agencies had expected global oil stockpiles to rise markedly in the early part of the year, that has so far failed to materialize.

The tightness has only added to calls that headline prices will soon top $100. Options traders have been betting on that outcome for months, with millions of barrels worth of contracts at $100 and above. 

“Price action since just before Christmas has been an incredibly bullish one-way street,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “You don’t see that unless market is very, very tight.”

Geopolitical Risks

The moves in headline prices in recent days have been driven by two of the market’s biggest geopolitical risks -- the potential return of Iranian barrels to the market and political tension around Ukraine. 

On Thursday, Russian state media cited Moscow-backed separatists as saying Ukrainian forces had violated cease-fire rules overnight. While Russia has insisted that it’s serious about easing tensions. 

“It’s a headline-driven market at the moment, with the market reacting to sensitive news from Eastern Europe and related to the Mid-east nuclear talks,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.