根據(jù)雷斯塔能源公司的分析，目前全球可采石油總儲量估計(jì)為1.572萬億桶

與去年相比，全球可采石油總儲量已減少1520億桶

去年生產(chǎn)的300億桶石油產(chǎn)量，加上未發(fā)現(xiàn)資源的大幅減少，驅(qū)動了全球石油總儲量的下降

據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月3日報(bào)道，在英國石油公司（bp）發(fā)布《年度統(tǒng)計(jì)評論》之后，挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）每年都會發(fā)布其對全球能源格局的分析，提供獨(dú)立的、基于數(shù)據(jù)的比較和評估。延續(xù)前幾年的趨勢，Rystad的今年評估顯示，全球可采石油資源大幅下降，這可能對全球能源安全造成重大打擊。  

根據(jù)Rystad的分析，目前全球可采石油總儲量估計(jì)為1.572萬億桶，比去年下降近9%，比去年減少了1520億桶。 

去年生產(chǎn)的300億桶石油產(chǎn)量，加上未發(fā)現(xiàn)資源量的大幅減少，驅(qū)動了全球石油總儲量下降1200億桶。美國海上行業(yè)對石油產(chǎn)量下降的影響最大，有200億桶石油儲量仍在地下，這很大程度上要?dú)w功于聯(lián)邦土地租賃禁令。

在技術(shù)上可開采的1.572萬億桶石油儲量中，以每桶50美元的價(jià)格計(jì)算，在2100年之前只有大約1.2萬億桶石油儲量可能具有經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性。這種經(jīng)濟(jì)上可開采的石油儲量在2050年前將貢獻(xiàn)約0.1℃的額外全球變暖，多虧天然碳匯，全球變暖在2100年前將有所減少。 

Rystad分析主管尼斯芬表示：“雖然石油供應(yīng)量的下降對環(huán)境是一個(gè)好消息，但它可能會進(jìn)一步破壞本已不穩(wěn)定的能源格局。能源安全是一個(gè)冗余問題；我們需要更多的能源來滿足日益增長的運(yùn)輸需求，而任何抑制供應(yīng)的行動都將迅速對全球的汽油價(jià)格產(chǎn)生反效果，包括美國等大型產(chǎn)油國。政治家和投資者可以通過瞄準(zhǔn)能源消費(fèi)、鼓勵(lì)交通部門電氣化以及大幅提高燃料效率來獲得成功。” 

從長期來看，Rystad在最新報(bào)告中更新了我們對未發(fā)現(xiàn)石油總儲量的估計(jì)，從2018年的1萬億桶到我們最新報(bào)告中的3500億桶，原因是投資者對勘探敞口的興趣迅速下降，導(dǎo)致政府租約減少。這一向下修正對碳排放合規(guī)來說是個(gè)好消息，但可能對全球能源安全會產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響，特別是如果電動汽車的使用率低于預(yù)期。 

總可采石油儲量對更廣泛的氣候影響大體上是積極的。如果所有剩余的可采石油都立即燃燒，全球氣候變暖的影響將是+0.25℃。 然而，到2100年，只有35%的石油燃燒排放的碳仍會留在大氣中，因?yàn)槎趸夹枰?0年才能自然地從空氣中去除。此外，并不是所有的石油都是作為能源燃燒的；例如，塑料中的碳只有在焚燒后才會釋放到大氣中。 

全球探明石油儲量能維持多久?  

Rystad的最新報(bào)告修訂了全球已探明石油儲量。今年，Rystad發(fā)現(xiàn)歐佩克和非歐佩克成員國探明儲量的開采壽命存在顯著差異。所有歐佩克國家探明的石油儲量預(yù)計(jì)都將超過10年，從伊拉克的10年多到沙特阿拉伯的14年多。在非歐佩克成員國中，墨西哥已探明儲量不足5年，在單個(gè)國家中排名最后，而加拿大的石油儲量預(yù)計(jì)可維持開采近20年。 

石油儲量都到哪兒去了?  

在可采石油資源報(bào)告中，沙特阿拉伯以2750億桶位居榜首，美國以1930億桶緊隨其后。前五名還有加拿大1180億桶和伊拉克1050億桶。 

在南美洲——一個(gè)石油發(fā)現(xiàn)和生產(chǎn)快速增長的地區(qū)——巴西仍然是第一，其可采石油儲量710億桶，但比去年減少了40億桶。在歐洲，英國和挪威的可采石油儲量均下降了10億桶，現(xiàn)在分別為100億桶和170億桶。  

與今年大多數(shù)國家石油資源減少的趨勢相反，美國今年迄今的探明石油資源增加了80億桶。  

Rystad最新的資源評估時(shí)間為今年1月1日。換句話說，Rystad的分析說明了今年年初各國剩余可采資源的情況。 

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Total Global Recoverable Oil Reserves Are Falling At An Alarming Rate

According to Rystad Energy analysis, global recoverable oil now totals an estimated 1,572 billion barrels.

Global recoverable oil reserves fell by 152 billion barrels compared to 2021.

The drop in reserves is driven by the 30 billion barrels of oil produced last year, plus a significant reduction in undiscovered resources.

Following publication of BP’s annual Statistical Review, each year Rystad Energy releases our own analysis of the global energy landscape to provide an independent, data-based comparison and evaluation. Continuing the trend from previous years, Rystad Energy’s 2022 review shows a sizeable drop in recoverable oil resources in what could deal a major blow to global energy security.

The drop in reserves is driven by the 30 billion barrels of oil produced last year, plus a significant reduction in undiscovered resources, to the tune of 120 billion barrels. The US offshore sector has contributed the largest total to that drop, where 20 billion barrels of oil will remain in the ground, largely thanks to leasing bans on federal land.

Of the 1,572 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil, only about 1,200 billion barrels are likely to be economically viable before 2100 at $50 per barrel. This economically extractable oil would contribute about 0.1 C of additional global warming by 2050, and somewhat less by 2100 thanks to natural carbon sinks.

“While the drop in oil availability is positive news for the environment, it may threaten to further destabilize an already precarious energy landscape. Energy security is a matter of redundancy; we need more of everything to meet the growing demand for transport and any action to curb supply will quickly backfire on pump prices worldwide, including large producers such as the US. Politicians and investors can find success by targeting energy consumption, encouraging electrification of the transport sector and drastically improving fuel efficiency,” says Per Magnus Nysveen, Rystad Energy’s head of analysis. 

Looking at the longer-term picture, Rystad Energy has updated our estimates for total undiscovered oil from 1 trillion barrels in 2018 to 350 billion barrels in our latest report, due to a rapid collapse in investor appetite for exploration exposure, leading to fewer government leases. This downward revision is good news for carbon compliance but could have negative consequences for global energy security, particularly if electric vehicle adoption falls short of expectations.

The broader climate implications of the total recoverable oil are broadly positive. If all remaining recoverable oil was to be burnt immediately, the global warming impact would be +0.25 C However, only 35% of carbon emissions from that oil would still be in the atmosphere in 2100, as it takes 80 years to be naturally removed from the air. Also, not all oil is burnt for energy; for example, carbon in plastics is released into the atmosphere only if incinerated.

According to Rystad Energy analysis, global recoverable oil now totals an estimated 1,572 billion barrels, a drop of almost 9% since last year and 152 billion fewer barrels than 2021’s total.