在經(jīng)歷了疫情引起的衰退以后，高影響力鉆井活動(dòng)正在恢復(fù)

在未來(lái)幾十年的能源轉(zhuǎn)型中，全球石油需求的趨勢(shì)將是未來(lái)海上油田盈利能力的關(guān)鍵因素

許多海上石油項(xiàng)目的盈虧平衡成本低于陸上項(xiàng)目

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)9月1日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于歐洲持續(xù)的能源危機(jī)和緊張的市場(chǎng)證明了世界對(duì)化石燃料的大量需求，海上油氣鉆井活動(dòng)和鉆井項(xiàng)目將在未來(lái)幾年里強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。

分析人士表示，在疫情引發(fā)的暴跌之后，高影響力鉆井活動(dòng)正在恢復(fù)，而國(guó)際石油巨頭接近批準(zhǔn)更多的海上油氣項(xiàng)目，包括迄今為止生產(chǎn)基地將位于國(guó)際水域的海上油氣項(xiàng)目。 

盡管急切能源轉(zhuǎn)型和石油巨頭宣稱加大對(duì)清潔能源解決方案投資以及在本十年內(nèi)抑制油氣生產(chǎn)的雄心，但石油巨頭們?nèi)栽诤Ｉ蠈ふ掖罅坑蜌赓Y源。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)的資源將需要大量的資本支出來(lái)啟動(dòng)和運(yùn)行，但一旦投入使用，深海海上項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)以較低的盈虧平衡成本在未來(lái)幾十年里生產(chǎn)石油，因?yàn)檫@些大型開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的規(guī)模非常大。 

在未來(lái)幾十年的能源轉(zhuǎn)型中，全球石油需求的趨勢(shì)將是影響未來(lái)海上油氣田盈利能力的關(guān)鍵因素。 

但現(xiàn)在，雖然一場(chǎng)前所未有的能源危機(jī)席卷全球，但勘探和生產(chǎn)公司并沒(méi)有放棄海上石油。

相反，他們正在尋求開(kāi)發(fā)的項(xiàng)目，與其他類型的石油開(kāi)發(fā)相比，海上項(xiàng)目能夠以更低的成本開(kāi)采石油數(shù)年，甚至數(shù)十年。 

全球海上油田盈虧平衡成本低于陸上油田

據(jù)路透社援引挪威能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司的分析，全球海上油氣項(xiàng)目的資源加權(quán)布倫特當(dāng)量盈虧平衡油價(jià)平均為每桶油當(dāng)量18.10美元，而已投產(chǎn)的全球陸上項(xiàng)目的盈虧平衡價(jià)格為每桶油當(dāng)量28.20美元。在正在開(kāi)發(fā)的項(xiàng)目中，全球海上油氣項(xiàng)目的盈虧平衡成本低于全球陸上項(xiàng)目。按照這種方法，盈虧平衡是指在穩(wěn)定的實(shí)際油價(jià)水平上，資產(chǎn)的繼續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)在商業(yè)上是可行的。 

加拿大深海項(xiàng)目可能成為世界首個(gè)深海項(xiàng)目

世界首個(gè)深海項(xiàng)目可能很快就會(huì)做出最終投資決定（FID），這個(gè)深海項(xiàng)目距離加拿大海岸很遠(yuǎn)，處于國(guó)際水域，需要加拿大根據(jù)這個(gè)項(xiàng)目的產(chǎn)量向聯(lián)合國(guó)支付礦區(qū)使用費(fèi)。 

這個(gè)深海項(xiàng)目就是由挪威能源巨頭Equinor牽頭的紐芬蘭和拉布拉多海上北灣項(xiàng)目（Bay du Nord project）。 

今年4月，這個(gè)120億美元的深海項(xiàng)目獲得加拿大政府的積極環(huán)境評(píng)估。這個(gè)項(xiàng)目尚未達(dá)成FID，預(yù)計(jì)將在本世紀(jì)20年代末生產(chǎn)出第一桶原油。據(jù)《能源管理季刊》報(bào)道，加拿大的積極態(tài)度使北灣項(xiàng)目“更接近世界上第一個(gè)深海海上油氣開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目”。  

除了挪威Equinor，英國(guó)石油公司也看到了北灣項(xiàng)目的潛力。在宣布退出加拿大油砂行業(yè)的同時(shí)，這家英國(guó)石油巨頭還收購(gòu)了塞諾佛斯能源公司在北灣項(xiàng)目35%的股份，將重心轉(zhuǎn)向加拿大未來(lái)潛在的海上增長(zhǎng)。

英國(guó)石油公司負(fù)責(zé)墨西哥灣和加拿大事務(wù)的高級(jí)副總裁Starlee Sykes在6月份就該公司的這筆交易發(fā)表評(píng)論：“這是我們?cè)诩幽么蟠蛟旄鼘Ｗⅰ⒏袕椥浴⒏懈?jìng)爭(zhēng)力的業(yè)務(wù)計(jì)劃中的重要一步。北灣項(xiàng)目將為我們?cè)诩~芬蘭和拉布拉多海域的現(xiàn)有投資組合增加相當(dāng)大的探區(qū)和探明儲(chǔ)量。”

未來(lái)5年海上合同數(shù)目將激增

根據(jù)韋斯特伍德全球能源集團(tuán)公布的數(shù)據(jù)，總體而言，在2022年至2026年間，全球海上油氣工程、采購(gòu)和建設(shè)（EPC）支出預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到2760億美元，比前5年增長(zhǎng)71%。該能源分析集團(tuán)表示，亞洲、中東和拉丁美洲將主導(dǎo)上述支出。  

此外，高影響力鉆井活動(dòng)也將卷土重來(lái)，與2011年相比，今年迄今為止的高影響力鉆井成功率更高。 

在經(jīng)歷了慘淡的2021年（發(fā)現(xiàn)新油氣資源成功率很低，是歷史最低的一年）以后，高影響力勘探活動(dòng)又重新開(kāi)始。

雷斯塔能源公司日前曾表示，今年迄今為止，勘探和生產(chǎn)公司已在高影響力井中發(fā)現(xiàn)了超過(guò)17億桶油當(dāng)量的儲(chǔ)量，幾乎是2021年全年發(fā)現(xiàn)的4.5億桶油當(dāng)量的4倍。雷斯塔能源公司指出，今年迄今，此類井的成功率達(dá)到47%，遠(yuǎn)高于去年28%的低成功率。

今年鉆取的高影響力井成功率大大提高，這對(duì)全球能源供應(yīng)來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)良好信號(hào)。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Offshore Oil And Gas Set For Robust Growth

·  High-impact drilling is returning after the COVID-induced slump.

·  The trend of global oil demand in the coming decades of the energy transition will be a key factor in the profitability of future offshore oilfields.

·  Many offshore oil projects have lower breakeven costs than onshore projects.

Offshore oil and gas drilling and projects are set for robust growth in the coming years thanks to the world’s clear need for continued large volumes of fossil fuels as evidenced by the ongoing energy crisis in Europe and tight markets. 

High-impact drilling is returning after the COVID-induced slump, while international majors are close to approving more offshore projects, including so far offshore that production sites would be in international waters, analysts say.  

Despite the push for energy transition and oil majors’ stated ambitions to invest more in clean energy solutions and – for some of them such as BP – to curb oil and gas production this decade, Big Oil is looking offshore for massive resources. Those discovered resources would require significant capital expenditure to get them up and running, but once pumping, the deep offshore projects could yield oil for decades at lower breakeven costs because of the sheer scale of the huge developments. 

Sure, more drilling offshore meets strong resistance from environmental organizations, which generally want Big Oil to stop pumping immediately, and which warn that potential ocean spills would endanger marine environment. 

The trend of global oil demand in the coming decades of the energy transition will be a key factor in the profitability of future offshore oilfields. 

But right now, with an unprecedented energy crisis unfolding, E&P companies are not abandoning offshore oil. On the contrary, they are looking to develop projects which would pump oil for years, possibly decades, at lower costs compared to other types of oil developments.

Global Offshore Has Lower Breakeven Costs Than Onshore 

According to Rystad Energy analysis, cited by Reuters, the resource-weighted Brent-equivalent breakeven oil price for producing global offshore projects averages $18.10 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), versus $28.20 per boe breakeven price for global onshore projects already in production. In projects under development, global offshore again beats global onshore in terms of lower breakeven costs. Per the methodology, breakeven is the flat real oil price at which the continued operation of the assets is commercially viable. 

Canada’s Deep Offshore Could Host A World First Project 

One project that could soon make a final investment decision (FID) is so far offshore Canada’s coast that it falls in international waters and would require Canada paying royalties to the United Nations based on production from the project. 

This is the Bay du Nord project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, led by Norway’s Equinor. In April, the $12-billion project received a positive environmental assessment from the Government of Canada. The project has yet to make an FID, with first oil expected to be produced in the late 2020s. The positive view from Canada takes Bay du Nord “a step closer to being the first offshore oil and gas project in the world to trigger Article 82 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),” reports Energy Regulation Quarterly.

Apart from Equinor, BP has also seen the potential of Bay du Nord. While announcing it was quitting Canada’s oil sands, the UK supermajor also bought Cenovus Energy’s 35% stake in the Bay du Nord project as it shifts its focus to future potential offshore growth in Canada. 

Commenting on BP’s deal, Starlee Sykes, bp senior vice president, Gulf of Mexico & Canada, saidin June: 

“This is an important step in our plans to create a more focused, resilient and competitive business in Canada. Bay du Nord will add sizable acreage and a discovered resource to our existing portfolio offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.” 

Offshore Contracts Set To Surge Through 2026 

Overall, offshore oil and gas engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) spending globally is expected to total $276 billion between 2022 and 2026, which would be a 71% increase compared to the preceding five-year period, according to Westwood Global Energy Group. Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America will dominate expenditure, the energy analytics group said. 

Moreover, high-impact drilling is also back, with a much higher success rate so far this year, compared to 2011. 

High-impact exploration has returned to the scene after a dismal 2021, which saw a low success rate—one of the lowest on record—in discovering new oil and gas resources. 

So far this year, E&P firms have discovered over 1.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) at high-impact wells, nearly quadrupling the 450 million boe discovered for the whole of 2021, Rystad Energy said earlier this month. So far into 2022, the success rate at such wells has stood at 47%, much higher than the meager 28% success rate last year, Rystad Energy noted.