美國石油巨頭將在2023年大幅增加資本支出

更高的現金流和積極的盈利前景為企業主管們增加資本支出預算提供了更多空間

在2020年石油危機之后，大多數能源公司都避免投入巨資擴大油氣生產

據油價網12月8日報道，幾個月前，美國政府曾敦促能源公司停止“戰爭暴利”，甚至威脅說，如果能源公司不能將利潤用于降低美國人的能源成本和提高油氣產量，就會對他們征收暴利稅。這些呼吁發出之際，大宗商品和能源價格高企，石油巨頭的利潤創下新高。

在2020年石油危機之后，大多數能源公司都避免投入巨資擴大油氣生產，而是優先考慮以股息和股票回購的形式向股東們返還更多現金。但有跡象表明，即使眾多能源公司宣布了重大支出和資本支出的增加，能源公司也愿意在未來幾年投入更多資金。

美國石油巨頭雪佛龍公司周三宣布，2023財年資本支出預算將達到170億美元，處于其150億至170億美元中期區間的高端，比今年的預期支出高出25%以上。

雪佛龍公司表示，上游資本支出包括用于二疊紀盆地開發的40多億美元；約20億美元用于其他頁巖和致密資產，約20億美元用于降低碳排放或提高可再生燃料產能的項目，比今年的預算增加了一倍多。盡管雪佛龍公司2023年的支出將大大高于2020年-2021年疫情流行年份的資本支出，但仍遠低于2012年-2019年期間300億美元的年均水平。

雪佛龍公司董事長兼首席執行官表示：“盡管存在通貨膨脹，但我們的資本支出預算仍與之前的指導相符。”

雪佛龍公司的同行埃克森美孚公司尚未宣布大幅增加資本支出，但周三表示，其2023年的資本支出將更接近其年度目標200億至250億美元的上限，預計到2027年將保持這一水平。埃克森美孚公司表示，其超過70%的資本投資將部署在美國二疊紀盆地、圭亞那、巴西和全球各地的液化天然氣項目。

這些投資將有助于到2027年將埃克森美孚公司的上游日產量增加50萬桶油當量，達到420萬桶油當量。埃克森美孚公司還公布了到2027年前將低排放項目的支出提高15%至170億美元的計劃。埃克森美孚公司還計劃在2024年之前將股票回購計劃擴大到500億美元，其中包括今年的150億美元。那么，這些錢從哪里來呢? 埃克森美孚公司表示，預計到2027年前，該公司的“盈利和現金流潛力將比2019年翻一番”，并預計到2023年底前，在2019年的水平上節省90億美元的結構性成本。

12月6日，加拿大第三大原油和天然氣生產商塞諾佛斯能源公司表示，預計在2023財年將支出40億至45億加元，高于今年33億至37億加元的預期，其中包括28億加元用于維持基礎生產和支持業務的維持資本。塞諾佛斯能源公司表示，預計將投資12億至17億加元用于優化和增長，包括在加拿大大西洋地區建設West White Rose項目 。

塞諾佛斯能源公司還預測明年油氣日產量為80萬至84萬桶油當量，同比增長超過3%，其中油砂日產量為58.2萬至64.2萬桶，常規日產量為12.5萬至14萬桶。與此同時，該公司預計下游原油日總產量將達到61萬至66萬桶，同比增長近28%。 

上周，巴西石油和天然氣巨頭巴西國家石油公司（Petrobras)宣布，將在2023-2027年增加大約15%的投資，達到780億美元，超過該公司2022-2026年的預計支出。在計劃的780億美元資本支出中，83%(640億美元)用于勘探開發活動，67%的勘探開發資本支出預算將用于鹽下油氣勘探和開發活動。該公司還計劃將減少碳排放的支出從之前計劃的4%提高到大約6%，并將其脫碳基金從目前的2.48億美元增加一倍多。

與此同時，巴西礦業巨頭淡水河谷公司12月7日宣布，計劃將明年的資本支出從今年的55億美元增加到60億美元，而勘探費用將從今年的1.8億美元增加到2026年的3.5億美元。淡水河谷公司還表示，預計2023年鐵礦石產量將小幅增加至3.2億噸，而今年為3.1億噸，但預計到2030年鐵礦石產量將超過3.6億噸。與此同時，銅產量預計將從今年的約26萬噸躍升至2023年的33萬至37萬噸，而鎳產量預計將從今年的大約18萬噸躍升至30萬噸。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Big Oil Is Preparing To Spend A Lot More In 2023

·     U.S. oil majors are significantly increasing capex in 2023.

·     Higher cash flow and a positive earnings outlook give executives more space to increase capex budgets.

·     The majority of energy companies have avoided spending big to expand production in the aftermath of the 2020 oil crisis.

A couple of months ago, U.S. urged energy companies to stop ‘war profiteering’ and even threatened to slap them with windfall tax if they failed to invest their profits in lowering costs for Americans and increasing production. The calls came at a time when Big Oil has been posting record profits amid high commodity and energy prices. 

The majority of energy companies have avoided spending big to expand production in the aftermath of the 2020 oil crisis, prioritizing returning more cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. Well, but there are signs that companies are willing to spend more in the coming year(s) even as a raft of energy companies have announced major spending and capex hikes.

U.S. oil supermajor Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) announced on Wednesday that FY 2023 capital spending budget will clock in at $17B, at the top end of its $15B-$17B medium-term range and up more than 25% from expected spending in 2022. 

The company said that upstream capex includes more than $4B for Permian Basin development; $2B for other shale and tight assets and $2B to go into projects that lower carbon emissions or increase renewable fuels production capacity, more than double the 2022 budget. Although Chevron’s spending for 2023 will be considerably higher than capital spending in the 2020-21 pandemic years, it’s still much lower than the $30B annual average of the 2012-19 period.

"Our capex budgets remain in line with prior guidance despite inflation," Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said.

Chevron’s peer ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has not announced a drastic increase in spending, but on Wednesday said that its capital spending for 2023 will be closer to the top end of its annual target of $20B-$25B, a level it expects to maintain through 2027. The company said more than 70% of its capital investments will be deployed in the U.S. Permian Basin, Guyana, Brazil and LNG projects across the globe. 

These investments will help increase the company's upstream production by 500K boe/day to 4.2M boe/day by 2027. Exxon also unveiled plans to boost spending on lower emission projects by 15% through 2027 to $17B through 2027. Exxon also plans to expand its stock buyback plan to $50B through 2024, including $15B this year. So, where will all that money come from? Exxon says it expects to "double earnings and cash flow potential" by 2027 compared to 2019, and also expects to deliver ~$9B in structural cost savings by year-end 2023 from 2019 levels.

On Tuesday, Canada's third-largest crude oil and natural gas producer Cenovus Energy (NYSE: CVE) said it expects to spend C$4B-C$4.5B in FY 2023, higher than estimates of C$3.3B-C$3.7B for 2022, including C$2.8B of sustaining capital for maintaining base production and support operations. Cenovus said it expects to direct C$1.2B-C$1.7B towards optimization and growth, including the construction of the West White Rose project in Atlantic Canada

Cenovus (CVE) also guided for production of 800K-840K boe/day next year, an increase of more than 3% Y/Y, including oil sands production of 582K-642K boe/day and conventional output of 125K-140K boe/day. Meanwhile, the company expects total downstream crude throughput to clock in at 610K-660K bbl/day, up nearly 28% Y/Y.

Last week, Brazil’s oil and gas supermajor Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. or Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) announced that it will increase 2023-2027 investments by about 15% to $78 billion over the company’s 2022-2026 projected spending. Of the $78 billion planned for capex, 83% or $64 billion is earmarked for E&P activities while 67% of the E&P capex budget will go to pre-salt activities. The company also plans to boost spending to reduce carbon emissions to ~6% of the total compared with 4% in the previous plan, and will see its decarbonization fund more than double the current $248M.

Meanwhile, Brazilian mining giant Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) On Wednesday announced plans to increase capex to US$6bn next year from US$5.5bn this year while exploration expenses will reach US$350mn in 2026 compared to $180 million for 2022. Vale also said it expects iron production to only increase slightly to 320 million tonnes in 2023 compared to 310 million tonnes in the current year, but expects production to exceed 360 million tonnes by 2030. Meanwhile, copper production is expected to jump to 335K-370K tons in 2023 from 260K tons this year while nickel production is expected to exceed 300K tonnes from ~180K tons in 2022.