據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶網(wǎng)站6月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，彭博社新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(BloombergNEF，BNEF)周四表示，由于未來幾年電動(dòng)汽車的使用量將激增，全球道路運(yùn)輸?shù)目傮w石油需求將在2027年達(dá)到峰值。

該研究公司在其年度《電動(dòng)汽車展望》報(bào)告中表示，電動(dòng)汽車的使用已經(jīng)取代了150萬桶/日的石油需求，而且電動(dòng)汽車“在未來幾年將急劇上升”。

據(jù)報(bào)告稱，美國(guó)和歐洲對(duì)道路燃料的需求已經(jīng)達(dá)到峰值，亞洲大國(guó)將于2024年達(dá)到峰值。全球兩輪車、三輪車和公交車的石油需求也已經(jīng)達(dá)到峰值，而乘用車的需求將在2025年達(dá)到峰值。然而，BNEF表示，由于重型卡車對(duì)柴油的依賴，商用車對(duì)石油的需求將需要更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間才能達(dá)到峰值。

根據(jù)BNEF的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型情景，2040年公路運(yùn)輸?shù)氖托枨髮⒔抵?350萬桶/日，比2022年的水平低約21%。據(jù)報(bào)告稱，除了電動(dòng)汽車日益重要的作用外，燃油效率的提高和共享交通的普及也對(duì)減少石油需求起到了重要作用。

然而，報(bào)告稱，石油需求的下降并不一定意味著油價(jià)暴跌。如果對(duì)新供應(yīng)能力的投資下降速度快于需求，油價(jià)可能會(huì)保持波動(dòng)和高位。考慮了供暖電氣化、工業(yè)和電解槽氫氣使用帶來的額外需求的BNEF凈零情景，預(yù)測(cè)在2050年全面淘汰道路運(yùn)輸?shù)倪^程中，石油需求將大幅下降。

根據(jù)該報(bào)告稱，通過電池直接電氣化是實(shí)現(xiàn)道路運(yùn)輸完全脫碳最有效、最具成本效益和最具商業(yè)可行性的途徑。該研究公司表示，燃料電池汽車發(fā)揮了一定的作用，特別是在一些“難以電氣化的長(zhǎng)途卡車應(yīng)用”中，但“在乘用車市場(chǎng)上沒有發(fā)揮任何有意義的作用”。此外，該報(bào)告稱，合成燃料沒有及時(shí)達(dá)到“對(duì)公路運(yùn)輸產(chǎn)生重大影響”所需的規(guī)模或價(jià)格點(diǎn)。

全球電動(dòng)汽車銷量預(yù)測(cè)

據(jù)該報(bào)告稱，未來幾年電動(dòng)汽車銷量將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，從2022年的1050萬輛增加到2026年的2700萬輛左右，電動(dòng)汽車在全球新乘用車中的份額將從2022年的14%躍升至2026年的30%。

一些市場(chǎng)的份額可能會(huì)更高，電動(dòng)汽車在亞洲大國(guó)和歐洲的銷量分別達(dá)到52%和42%。該報(bào)告稱，到2026年，美國(guó)的《通貨膨脹削減法案》可能會(huì)將電動(dòng)乘用車銷量推至28%。日本在電動(dòng)汽車普及方面“明顯落后”于其他國(guó)家。車隊(duì)運(yùn)營(yíng)商將看到更快的增長(zhǎng)，從2022年底的2700萬輛乘用車增加到2026年的1億多輛。

與此同時(shí)，報(bào)告稱，內(nèi)燃汽車的銷量在2017年達(dá)到峰值，目前“處于長(zhǎng)期下降狀態(tài)”。到2026年，內(nèi)燃汽車的銷量將比2017年的峰值低39%，而內(nèi)燃汽車將在2025年達(dá)到峰值。

根據(jù)BNEF的預(yù)測(cè)，到2030年，電動(dòng)汽車將占全球乘用車銷量的44%，到2040年將占75%。報(bào)告稱，在2022年至2035年快速增長(zhǎng)后，歐洲、亞洲大國(guó)和美國(guó)等主要電動(dòng)汽車市場(chǎng)的電動(dòng)汽車銷量增長(zhǎng)將在本世紀(jì)30年代末略有放緩，因?yàn)樗鼈冮_始飽和。

實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放需要更快的進(jìn)展

BNEF表示，到2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)道路運(yùn)輸凈零排放仍然是可能的，但需要“更快的進(jìn)展”。該報(bào)告指出，重型卡車“遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于凈零排放軌跡”，該行業(yè)應(yīng)成為政府決策者的“優(yōu)先關(guān)注點(diǎn)”。電動(dòng)重型卡車的經(jīng)濟(jì)性將在整個(gè)本世紀(jì)20年代迅速提高，甚至在長(zhǎng)途應(yīng)用中也將變得與柴油同等實(shí)惠。然而，報(bào)告稱，燃料成本仍然很重要，天然氣將保持經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

該研究還將電網(wǎng)投資、電網(wǎng)連接和許可程序確定為需要精簡(jiǎn)的領(lǐng)域，以“支持過渡所需的大量充電網(wǎng)點(diǎn)”。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶 網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand for Road Transport to Peak in 2027: BNEF

Overall global oil demand for road transport will peak in 2027 as electric vehicle (EV) usage will surge in the coming years, BloombergNEF (BNEF) said Thursday.

The usage of EVs is already displacing demand for 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, and this displacement “rises dramatically in the years ahead”, the research firm said in its annual Electric Vehicle Outlook report.

Demand for road fuel has already peaked in the USA and Europe, and is set to peak in 2024 in China, the report said. Global oil demand from two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and buses has also already peaked, while demand from passenger cars will peak in 2025. However, commercial vehicle demand for oil will take longer to peak due to the reliance of heavy trucks on diesel, BNEF said.

According to BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, oil demand from road transport will drop to 33.5 million bpd in 2040, around 21 percent lower than 2022 levels. Aside from the rising role of electric vehicles, fuel efficiency improvement of combustion vehicles and the uptake of shared mobility also have a significant part in reducing oil demand, the report said.

However, the fall in oil demand does not necessarily mean a collapse in oil prices, it said. Oil prices could remain volatile and high if investments in new supply capacity fall faster than demand, the report said. BNEF’s Net Zero Scenario, which accounts for additional demand from the electrification of heating, industry, and electrolyzer use for hydrogen, forecasts a steeper drop in oil demand in the process of a full phaseout from road transport in 2050.

According to the report, direct electrification via batteries is the most efficient, cost-effective, and commercially available route to fully decarbonize road transport. Fuel cell vehicles play a part, specifically in some “hard-to-electrify long-haul trucking applications but “play no meaningful role in the passenger vehicle market”, the research firm said. Also, synthetic fuels do not arrive at scale in time or at a price point needed to “have a material impact on road transport”, the report said.

Global EV Sales Projection

EV sales will continue to rise in the next few years, increasing from 10.5 million in 2022 to around 27 million in 2026, the report said, with EV share of global new passenger vehicles jumping from 14 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2026.

Shares in some markets could be much higher, with EVs reaching 52 percent of sales in the biggest country in Asia and 42 percent in Europe. In the USA, the Inflation Reduction Act could push EV passenger vehicle sales to 28 percent by 2026, according to the report. Japan “significantly lags” behind other countries in EV adoption, the report said. Fleet operators will see even quicker growth, increasing from 27 million passenger EVs on the road at the end of 2022 to over 100 million by 2026.

Meanwhile, sales of internal combustion vehicles peaked in 2017 and are now “in long-term decline”, the report said. By 2026, sales of combustion vehicles will be 39 percent lower than their 2017 peak, while the combustion vehicle fleet peaks in 2025, according to the report.

According to BNEF projections, EVs will reach 44 percent of global passenger vehicle sales by 2030 and 75 percent by 2040. After increasing rapidly from 2022 to 2035, EV sales growth will slow down slightly in the late 2030s in the main EV markets like Europe,the biggest country in Asia, and the USA as they begin to saturate, the report said.

Faster Progress Required to Achieve Net Zero

Achieving net-zero road transport emissions by 2050 is still possible but requires “much faster progress”, BNEF said. The report identifies heavy trucks as being “far behind the net-zero trajectory”, and the industry should be a “priority focus” for government policymakers. The economics of electric heavy trucks will improve rapidly throughout the 2020s and become as cheap as diesel equivalents even for long-haul applications. However, fuel costs will still matter and natural gas will remain economically competitive, the report said.

The study also identifies grid investments, grid connections, and permitting processes as areas that need to be streamlined to “support the large number of charging points needed for the transition”.