據(jù)美國(guó)鉆機(jī)地帶網(wǎng)站2023年6月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，麥格理集團(tuán)全球石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)分析師維卡斯·德維維迪和沃爾特·錢塞勒日前在發(fā)給鉆機(jī)地帶網(wǎng)站的一份新報(bào)告中宣布，在6月4日舉行的歐佩克+會(huì)議之后，他們對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)仍然“短期看漲，但結(jié)構(gòu)性看跌”。

分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中表示：“我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為，煉油廠原油日加工量的大幅增加（350萬至400萬桶）、季節(jié)性之外機(jī)械工程電力消耗以及歐佩克+減產(chǎn)將在今年第三季度收緊原油市場(chǎng)平衡。”

分析師們補(bǔ)充說：“我們預(yù)計(jì)在今年第四季度和2024年將出現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)整，原因是美國(guó)和北海的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)緩慢，歐佩克+不遵守減產(chǎn)協(xié)議，以及經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退影響導(dǎo)致的需求放緩。”

“在我們看來，石油市場(chǎng)面臨的結(jié)構(gòu)性挑戰(zhàn)是石油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)放緩，我們認(rèn)為這一特征將持續(xù)數(shù)年”。

麥格理集團(tuán)分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中指出，在美國(guó)，煉油商需要重質(zhì)、含硫的原油“來平衡原油供應(yīng)”，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)國(guó)內(nèi)供應(yīng)的大部分是輕質(zhì)和低硫原油。

“因此，美國(guó)依賴從中東、墨西哥和南美進(jìn)口重質(zhì)、含硫原油，以最大限度提高煉油廠的利用率。”

“沙特阿拉伯7月份自愿削減100萬桶原油日產(chǎn)量，這一減產(chǎn)協(xié)議有可能進(jìn)一步壓縮原油折扣并壓縮煉油廠利潤(rùn)率。”

分析師們還在報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào)，與衰退壓力對(duì)需求的影響相關(guān)的宏觀擔(dān)憂，可能會(huì)限制歐佩克+干預(yù)支撐價(jià)格的能力。

分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中表示：“需求是平衡中最不確定的關(guān)鍵部分，市場(chǎng)關(guān)注的是亞洲大國(guó)需求的增長(zhǎng)。”

李峻 編譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶 網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Macquarie Group Reveals Oil Market Outlook

In a new report sent to Rigzone, Macquarie strategists Vikas Dwivedi and Walt Chancellor announced that they remain “short-term bullish but structurally bearish” on the oil market after last weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.

“We continue to believe the large, 3.5 to 4.0 million barrel per day increase in refinery runs, extra-seasonal ME power burn, and OPEC+ cuts will tighten direct crude balances through 3Q23,” the analysts stated in the report.

“From there, we expect a correction in 4Q23 and 2024 due to sweet production growth from the U.S. and N. Sea, OPEC+ non-compliance, and slowing demand due to recessionary effects,” they added.

“In our view, the structural challenge for the oil market is the ease of oil production growth, a feature we believe will persist for several years,” the analysts continued.

In the report, the Macquarie strategists outlined that, in the U.S., refiners need heavier, sour barrels “to balance the crude slate” as much of the domestic supply is light and sweet.

“Therefore, the U.S. relies on heavy, sour crude imports from the Middle East, Mexico, and South America to maximize the utilization of the refineries,” the analysts said.

“The extendable and reviewable one million barrel per day voluntary cut by Saudi for July has the potential to shrink … sour discounts and compress … refinery margins further,” they added.

The strategists also highlighted in the report that macro concerns associated with the impact of recessionary pressures on demand are potentially limiting the ability for OPEC+ intervention to support price.

“Demand is a key part of the balance that has the most uncertainty, with the market focusing on the demand growth of the biggest country in Asia,” the analysts said in the report.

“Currently, the IEA is attributing around 60 percent of 2023 global demand growth to the biggest country in Asia; in contrast we estimate it will contribute [around] 35 percent,” they added.