據美國鉆井地帶網站2023年7月3日報道，沙特阿拉伯將在7月份額外日減100萬桶原油產量，加上季節性需求走強，應該有助于在今年第三季度實際收緊市場。

這是惠譽解決方案公司BMI的分析師們在一份新報告中作出的聲明。  

分析師們在報告中表示：“中東和北非(MENA)地區產油國在夏季傾向于減少原油出口，屆時原油產量將轉向國內市場，以滿足國內峰值需求。”

“這種趨勢并不局限于中東和北非地區，全球石油消費通常在6月至9月期間上升。這在很大程度上是由于旅行增加刺激了對汽油和航空燃料的更高需求。”分析師們補充說。

分析師們繼續說：“空中交通仍在從疫情中復蘇，而美國的駕車季節也有了一個強勁的開端，這兩個因素都應該會支撐季節性需求增長趨勢。”

BMI分析師們在報告中承認，沙特阿拉伯的額外減產最早可能在8月份恢復，但他們表示，“沙特阿拉伯似乎更有可能選擇將減產延續到7月以后的幾個月，或者交錯增加產量，以避免價格再次上漲的風險”。

“從理論上講，這應該會支持油價上漲。然而，在今年的大部分時間里，價格走勢已脫離基本面，而基本面仍相對有彈性”，分析師們在報告中表示。

分析師補充稱：“這在價差和布倫特原油管理資金頭寸的變化中很明顯……盡管歐佩克+對市場進行了多次強有力的干預，但今年油價一直難以保持漲勢。”

“從上行方面看，布倫特原油似乎在70美元附近找到了底部，但反彈受到賣空者和普遍看跌的宏觀情緒的限制。”分析師們繼續說道。

劇烈漲落

在上周另一份報告中，渣打銀行分析師們表示，他們預計基本面將收緊到足以對原油價格產生更大影響的程度。

分析師們在報告中補充稱：“我們的供需模型顯示，受季節性需求波動和中東主要產油國減產的影響，原油供應將從4月份的每天141萬桶過剩大幅下滑至7月份每天133萬桶和8月份每天170萬桶的短缺。”

根據EIA 6月份發布的最新一期短期能源展望(STEO)報告，第三季度原油和其他液體庫存每天凈提取量預計為20萬桶，第四季度為1萬桶。STEO報告預計第二季度總庫存將日增52萬桶。

STEO報告表示，第二季度石油和其他液體產品的日總產量預計將達到1.0133億桶，第三季度達到1.0140億桶，第四季度達到1.0169億桶。STEO報告預計第二季度的石油和其他液體日總消費量為1.0081億桶，第三季度為1.016億桶，第四季度為1.0169億桶。

在5月份發布的上一份STEO報告中，EIA預計第二季度總庫存日增29萬桶，第四季度日增4萬桶。在5月份的STEO報告中，預計第三季度的總庫存沒有變化。

沙特減產

瑞典北歐斯安銀行 (SEB)首席商品分析師Bjarne Schieldrop在6月份一份聲明中強調，沙特阿拉伯每天額外減產100萬桶原油產量“對市場來說是個大驚喜”。

Schieldrop在聲明中表示：“額外的減產將確保油價不會跌破每桶70美元，防止庫存上升，并為7月4日至6日的下一次歐佩克+會議奠定良好的戰術談判基礎。”

他補充說：“如果沒有必要每天削減100萬桶原油產量，那么沙特阿拉伯將在8月份解除，如果確實需要，那么沙特阿拉伯可以強力支持歐佩克+從8月份開始聯合減產。”

挪威雷斯塔能源公司高級副總裁喬治·利昂表示，“沙特7月份之后減產的純粹可能性將限制今年剩余時間內的原油價格下行壓力”。

在最新的報告中利昂強調說，沙特阿拉伯7月份的原油日產量將降至略低于900萬桶，這是沙特阿拉伯原油產量自2021年6月以來的最低水平。

李峻 譯自 美國鉆井地帶網站

原文如下：

Analysts Say These Factors Should Help Physically Tighten Market in Q3

An additional one million barrel per day unilateral cut by Saudi Arabia, set to take effect in July, coupled with seasonally stronger demand, should help to physically tighten the market in the third quarter.

That’s according to analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, who made the statement in a new report sent to Rigzone.

“Middle East and North Africa (MENA) producers tend to export less crude during their summer season, when crude production is diverted to the domestic market, to meet peaking demand,” the analysts stated in the report.

“This trend is not limited to MENA, with global oil consumption typically rising between June and September. Much of this is driven by higher demand for gasoline and jet fuel, spurred by increased travel,” the analysts added.

“Air traffic is still recovering from the pandemic, while the U.S. driving is off to a strong start, both of which should bolster seasonal trends,” the analysts continued.

In the report, the BMI analysts conceded that the barrels from Saudi Arabia’s additional cut could be returned as early as August but stated that “it seems more likely that the kingdom will opt for either a rollover into subsequent months, or a staggered increase in production, so as not to risk a relapse in prices”.

“In theory, this should support gains in the oil price. However, price action over much of 2023 has been detached from the fundamentals, which remain relatively resilient,” the analysts said in the report.

“This is evident in the shifts seen in terms spreads and in managed money positioning in Brent … prices have struggled to hold gains this year, despite repeated and robust market interventions made by OPEC+,” the analysts added.

“On the upside, Brent appears to have found a floor around the low $70s, but rallies have been capped by short sellers and generally bearish macro sentiment,” the analysts continued.

Sharp Swing

In a separate report sent to Rigzone last week, analysts at Standard Chartered said they expect fundamentals to tighten enough to exert a greater pull on prices.

“Our supply-demand model shows a sharp swing from a 1.41 million barrel per day surplus in April to deficits of 1.33 million barrels per day in July and 1.70 million barrels per day in August helped by seasonal demand swings and output cuts by key Middle East producers,” the analysts added in that report.

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in June, total crude oil and other liquids inventory net withdrawals were projected to come in at 0.20 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 0.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The STEO projects a total stock build of 0.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter.

Total petroleum and other liquids production is expected to come in at 101.33 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the STEO showed. Total petroleum and other liquids consumption is projected in the STEO to come in at 100.81 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.60 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

In its previous STEO, which was released in May, the EIA projected a total stock build of 0.29 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 0.04 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. A total stock draw of 0.00 million barrels per day was expected in the third quarter in the May STEO.

Saudi Cut

In a statement sent to Rigzone last month, Bjarne Schieldrop, the Chief Commodity Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), highlighted that Saudi Arabia’s additional one million barrel per day cut was a “big surprise to the market”.

“The additional cut will make sure the oil price won't fall below $70 per barrel, prevent inventories from rising, and make for a great tactical negotiation setup for the next OPEC+ meeting on July 4-6,” Schieldrop said in the statement.

“If the one million barrel per day July cut is unnecessary, then it will be unwound for August and if it indeed was needed then Saudi Arabia can strong-arm rest of OPEC+ to make a combined cut from August,” he added.

In a market update sent to Rigzone in June, Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon said, “the pure possibility of the Saudi production cut extending beyond July will limit downside price pressure for the rest of 2023”.

In the update, Leon highlighted that Saudi crude production in July would drop to just below nine million barrels per day, which he noted is the country’s lowest level since June 2021.