據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月17日?qǐng)?bào)道，在原油價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌數(shù)月后，由于原油價(jià)格回升，美國(guó)汽油和柴油價(jià)格開(kāi)始上漲。美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)平均汽油價(jià)格從一周前的每加侖3.543美元上漲至每加侖3.565美元，而柴油的平均價(jià)格從每加侖3.837美元上漲至每加侖3.842美元。原油市場(chǎng)正試圖延續(xù)連續(xù)三周的漲勢(shì)，與原油價(jià)格上漲相吻合。

過(guò)去三周以來(lái)，原油市場(chǎng)一直在持續(xù)上漲，原油價(jià)格一度突破每桶80美元，這是兩個(gè)月以來(lái)首次，主要?dú)w因于需求上升和歐佩克+減產(chǎn)措施終于使全球市場(chǎng)收緊。

然而，原油價(jià)格上漲是否會(huì)持續(xù)尚不確定，因?yàn)槿蛟褪袌?chǎng)的供應(yīng)緊張局勢(shì)面臨個(gè)別國(guó)家增產(chǎn)以及美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量的挑戰(zhàn)。

挪威研究機(jī)構(gòu)雷斯塔能源估計(jì)，盡管歐佩克+宣布減產(chǎn)2022年約6%的產(chǎn)量，但非歐佩克產(chǎn)量已彌補(bǔ)了其中三分之二的減產(chǎn)，其中美國(guó)占了其中的一半。

美國(guó)一直在懇求美國(guó)產(chǎn)油商甚至歐佩克增加產(chǎn)量，以保持油價(jià)和燃油價(jià)格低廉。但目前美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)區(qū)與歐佩克之間形成了拉鋸戰(zhàn)，前者試圖利用周期性較高的油價(jià)增加產(chǎn)量，而歐佩克+試圖保持較低供應(yīng)水平以平衡油價(jià)。

作為領(lǐng)先的歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)，沙特阿拉伯已經(jīng)連續(xù)第二個(gè)月延長(zhǎng)其每日100萬(wàn)桶的自愿減產(chǎn)，這一次延長(zhǎng)到八月。這將使該國(guó)的產(chǎn)量降至每日約900萬(wàn)桶，是多年來(lái)的最低水平。沙特一直在犧牲產(chǎn)量，試圖推高疲弱的油價(jià)，但目前收效甚微。

然而，石油交易商對(duì)這些減產(chǎn)是否能夠產(chǎn)生預(yù)期效果仍然不太樂(lè)觀，對(duì)沖基金Massar Capital Management的首席投資官M(fèi)arwan Younes表示，這些漲幅可能不會(huì)持續(xù)太久。

據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》報(bào)道，Saxo Bank的大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示：“問(wèn)題在于已經(jīng)疲弱的環(huán)境中減產(chǎn)，影響有限。看起來(lái)我們可能會(huì)在這種情況下持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。”

胡耀東 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Gasoline Prices Inch Up As Crude Soars

After months of decline following falling crude prices, gasoline and diesel prices have started rising thanks to soaring crude prices. National average gas prices in the United States have inched up to $3.565 per gallon from $3.543 a week ago, while a gallon of diesel now averages $3.842 from $3.837 a week ago. Oil markets are looking to build on three straight weeks of increases, which coincides with the oil price rally.

Oil markets have enjoyed a sustained rally over the past three weeks, with oil prices briefly moving above $80 per barrel for the first time in two months ostensibly thanks to rising demand and OPEC+ supply cuts finally causing global markets to tighten.

Whether or not the oil price rally has any legs, however, remains to be seen with supply tightness in global oil markets being challenged by growing production from the likes of certain coutries as well as record production by the U.S. Shale Patch.

Rystad Energy has estimated that whereas OPEC and its allies have announced cuts amounting to 6% of 2022's production, non-OPEC supply has made up for two-thirds of those cuts, with the U.S. accounting for half of that.

The Administration has been pleading with American producers and even OPEC to ramp-up production in a bid to keep oil and fuel prices low. But it’s become a tug-of-war between the U.S. Shale Patch and OPEC with the former trying to take advantage of cyclically high oil prices by growing production while the likes of OPEC+ are trying to keep supply low in a bid to goose prices.

For the second month running, the leading OPEC producer, Saudi Arabia, has extended its voluntary 1M bbl/day oil production cut for another month, this time till August. The reduction will take the country’s production to ~9M bbl/day, the lowest level in several years. Saudi has been single-handedly sacrificing sales volume in bid to goose weak oil prices, but has so far reaped little reward.

However, oil traders remain unconvinced that the cuts will have the desired effect over the long-term, with Marwan Younes, chief investment officer of hedge fund Massar Capital Management, saying the gains are likely to be short-lived.

“The problem is when you cut production in an already weak environment, the impact is limited. It looks like we could be here for a while,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, has told the Wall Street Journal.