據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2023年8月8日報(bào)道，周二，加拿大投資管理公司Ninepoint Partners合伙人兼高級投資組合經(jīng)理埃里克·納托爾在接受BNN彭博電視記者采訪時表示，到今年年底，全球原油庫存將降到8年來的最低點(diǎn)。

盡管對亞洲原油需求不穩(wěn)的持續(xù)擔(dān)憂和美國高利率的可怕威脅周期性地拖累油價，但近期原油價格的反彈相當(dāng)強(qiáng)勁。納托爾解釋說：“歸根結(jié)底，我們對原油市場健康狀況的衡量可以歸結(jié)為全球原油庫存。”

根據(jù)Kpler跟蹤數(shù)據(jù)，“到8月8日上午的實(shí)時數(shù)據(jù)：全球原油庫存處于8個月以來的低點(diǎn)。我們預(yù)計(jì)，由于需求依然強(qiáng)勁，從現(xiàn)在到年底，全球原油庫存將跌至8年來最低點(diǎn)。”納托爾說。納托爾補(bǔ)充說，需求能夠進(jìn)行實(shí)時測量。

納托爾還提到了上周美國歷史上最大的原油庫存減少。

納托爾說，“從現(xiàn)在到年底，油價有強(qiáng)大的基本面支撐——考慮到目前的庫存水平，我們認(rèn)為油價將在每桶80美元左右——我們認(rèn)為，隨著時間的推移，油價應(yīng)該會走強(qiáng)”。

在談到對經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂時，納托爾指出，歷史上只有兩次原油需求出現(xiàn)下滑，一次是在疫情期間，另一次是在金融危機(jī)期間。其他所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退都只是原油需求增長放緩，而不是原油需求本身下降。

8月8日下午早些時候，原油價格下跌，美國東部時間當(dāng)天中午WTI價格為每桶81.28美元，當(dāng)日每桶下跌0.66美元。當(dāng)天布倫特原油基準(zhǔn)價格下跌0.65美元，至每桶84.69美元。

國際能源署6月份發(fā)布的中期報(bào)告預(yù)測，由于高油價和供應(yīng)安全問題促使世界各國加快能源轉(zhuǎn)型進(jìn)程，未來幾年全球原油需求增長將放緩至幾乎停滯。

李峻 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Crude Inventories To Sink To 8-Year Low This Year: Nuttall

Inventories of crude oil will reach an 8-year low by the end of this year, Eric Nuttal, partner and Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, told BNN Bloomberg TV on Tuesday.

While persistent fear of Asian stuttering crude oil demand and the boogeyman of high interest rates are periodically dragging down oil prices, the recent price rally in crude oil has been fairly substantial. “When you boil it all down, our measurement of the health of the oil market comes down to oil inventories—globally,” Nuttall explained.

Using Kpler tracking data, “real time data as of this morning: global oil inventories are at an 8-month low. We expect between now and year end they will fall to an 8-year low due to strong demand still,” says Nuttal, who added that demand can be measured in real time.

Nuttal also referenced last weeks’ biggest crude oil inventory draw in the history of the United States.

“When we look between now and year end, there’s a strong fundamental support—we think at about $80 given where inventories are now—and we think we should strengthen as we go throughout the year.”

When speaking about recession fears, Nuttal pointed out that only twice in history has oil demand faltered—during Covid and during the Great Financial Crisis. All other recessions merely saw a slowdown in oil demand growth, not a dip in oil demand itself.

Crude oil prices were trading down on Tuesday in the early afternoon, with WTI at $81.28 at noon ET, down $0.66 per barrel on the day. The Brent crude oil benchmark was trading down $0.65 on the day at $84.69 per barrel.

The IEA’s medium-term report released in June predicts that world oil demand is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years on high prices and supply security issues push the world to fast-track their energy transition efforts.