據烴加工新聞6月9日消息稱，咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲表示，到2050年，全球煉油行業潛在的低碳（綠色或藍色）氫需求可能達到5000萬噸/年。

煉油行業是最大的氫氣市場之一，2020年約3200萬噸/年，占全球氫需求的30%-35%。加氫處理和加氫裂化是煉油部門消耗90%以上氫的主要煉油工藝，它們分別用于降低成品中的硫和提高運輸燃料的產量。

然而，煉油過程中65%以上的氫需求是由催化重整器和乙烯裂化裝置的副產物氫來滿足的；這是不可能被低碳氫取代的。如果出現氫氣短缺，則可以通過天然氣蒸汽甲烷重整（灰色）和煤炭（棕色）生產氫氣，這兩種方式合計占煉廠氫氣需求的32%左右。

伍德麥肯茲研究主管Sushant Gupta說：“如果低碳氫具有成本競爭力，并且隨著時間的推移政策支持不斷發展，低碳氫有潛力取代專用氫作為原料，使全球煉油廠在范圍1和范圍2內的整體碳排放量減少10%即1億噸/年。”

曹海斌 摘譯自 烴加工新聞

原文如下：

Low-carbon hydrogen demand in refining could reach 50 Mtpy by 2050

Potential low-carbon (green or blue) hydrogen demand from the global refining sector could reach 50 MMtpy by 2050, says Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business. 

Oil refining is one of the largest markets for hydrogen, accounting for about 32 Mtpy or 30-35% of global hydrogen demand in 2020. Hydrotreating and hydrocracking are the major refinery processes consuming over 90% of hydrogen in the refining sector, and they are used to reduce sulphur from finished products, and to increase yield of transport fuels, respectively. 

However, more than 65% of hydrogen demand in refining is met by hydrogen supplied as a by-product from catalytic reformers and ethylene crackers; this is unlikely to be replaced by low-carbon hydrogen. Any hydrogen shortfall is met by on-purpose production from gas-based steam methane reforming (grey) and coal (brown), together accounting for about 32% of refinery hydrogen demand. 

Wood Mackenzie research director Sushant Gupta said: “Low-carbon hydrogen has the potential to replace on-purpose hydrogen as a feedstock if low-carbon hydrogen becomes cost competitive and policy support develops over time，reduction in overall scope 1 and 2 global refinery carbon emissions.”